The Market Just Flipped. Here is What Buyers Can Actually Do About It.

For the first time in years, buyers have leverage. Nearly two-thirds of home buyers in 2025 paid below the original listing price. The average discount was about 8%. For perspective: that has not happened since 2012.

What changed is simple. From 2020 to 2022, interest rates were near zero and everyone wanted to buy. Sellers had all the power. Bidding wars were routine. You put in an offer and hoped someone did not outbid you with cash over asking.

Now rates are higher, prices are still high and a lot of buyers have stepped out of the market. The people who are still trying to buy are discovering something unexpected: sellers are willing to negotiate.

Credit: Nicole Friedman, "The Housing Market Is Swinging Toward Buyers," Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2026.

Why Did the Market Flip?

According to Redfin's analysis, the U.S. housing market now has over 600,000 more sellers than buyers—the biggest such gap on record. That imbalance is the engine driving the shift. Many would-be buyers are sidelined by high home prices and elevated mortgage rates. For those still able to buy, they suddenly have more power than they have had in years.

As Redfin's chief economist Daryl Fairweather put it in the Wall Street Journal: "When there is this gap between what sellers expect and what buyers can afford, it is the buyers that end up negotiating that lower price. Sellers are not the ones that dictate prices—it is buyers that do."

The data backs that up. About 1 in 4 buyers who got discounts in 2025 scored 10% or more off the list price, the highest share since 2012.

Why This Matters in Orange County

The shift is most dramatic in markets with new supply. In Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, over 85% of homes sold below list price last year. In Austin, 82% did. These are places where builders actually built homes in recent years.

In Orange County and California generally, the discount is smaller because supply is still constrained. The discount is there, nonetheless. Sellers who held out for 2021 prices are starting to adjust. Homes that are priced realistically are moving. Homes that are overpriced are sitting.

What This Means If You are Still Waiting

If you have been sitting on the sidelines because prices felt too high, this is the environment where you might actually negotiate. You are not bidding against five other buyers anymore. You are negotiating with one seller who is motivated to move.

That does not mean prices are dropping to 2019 levels. It means the seller's initial ask is no longer the final number. It means you can ask for seller concessions. Closing cost credits. Rate buydowns. Repairs completed before closing.

If you can qualify and you have been waiting for the market to come to you, it finally has.

The Catch

This only works if you are actually ready to buy. Pre-approved. Clear on what you can afford. Willing to make an offer when the right house comes along. If you are still saving for a down payment or you need to sell another home first, the window for leverage is there but will not last long.

Interest rates will not stay elevated forever. Buyers who are sitting out will eventually come back. Inventory could tighten again. The moment where a seller actually has to negotiate does not stick around.

If you want to talk through whether this is the time for you, or what your actual negotiating position is in Orange County right now, call or email me. We can walk through your specific situation.

Rates shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a commitment to lend. Actual rates depend on credit profile, loan type, property type and market conditions. Not all borrowers will qualify.